fix(flip-candidates): floor GE tax to whole coins, pin full sell-cycle, qualify F2P path
Governor-review bounce (PR #7) fixes on issue-1: 1. GE 2% convenience fee rounds DOWN per item: net = sell - floor(0.02*sell) - buy. Anchor net 16.12 -> 17 (244-4-223); top-8 members table recomputed with floored tax -> 598,000/4h = 149,500 gp/h (was 138,000); gp_per_hour_low/high updated. Validator now rejects fractional-tax arithmetic for GE-margin entries. 2. State machine split wait_fill into wait_buy_fill / wait_sell_fill so the full buy -> buy-fill -> sell -> sell-fill -> collect path is explicit; sell cycle can no longer loop back into sell without collecting. 3. Economy qualified as the members path (8 slots); F2P path added (3 slots, F2P-tradeable rows only): Iron bar + Cosmic rune + Silver ore = 227,000/4h = 56,750 gp/h. Members/F2P flags cross-checked against wiki item pages.
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@ -3,21 +3,25 @@ title: GE Flipping (margin trading)
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domain: economy
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tags: [flipping, merchanting, ge, money-making, hybrid]
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status: verified
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version: 1
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version: 2
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updated: "2026-08-27" # ISO dates must stay quoted — YAML 1.1 parses bare dates to datetime.date
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summary: >
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Buy-and-sell Grand Exchange margin flipping: place resting buy offers at
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the low edge of an item's price band and resting sell offers at the high
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edge, harvesting the spread on high-volume items. There are no skill or
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quest requirements — capital breadth and slot discipline are the whole game.
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quest requirements — capital breadth and slot discipline are the whole
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game. Members accounts run 8 GE slots over the full candidate set;
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F2P accounts get 3 slots and F2P-tradeable rows only (separate F2P path
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in profit_drivers).
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accounts:
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membership: hybrid # flipping works on F2P and members accounts alike
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membership: hybrid # members: 8 slots/full set; F2P: 3 slots/F2P rows (see economy)
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min_level: 3 # post-Tutorial Island baseline; no skill requirement
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requires_quest: []
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requires_other:
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- "Post-Tutorial Island account with Grand Exchange access (no skill or quest requirement)"
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- "Members account: 8 GE slots, full candidate set (the modeled path below). F2P account: 3 GE slots and F2P-tradeable rows only — run the F2P path in profit_drivers."
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best_practice:
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equipment:
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@ -48,22 +52,35 @@ best_practice:
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some items share a connected limit with related items — treat those as one bucket
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when filling slots."
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source: "OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange (Buy limits; Grand Exchange/Buying limits)"
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- name: run the path that matches the account's slot set
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why: "Members get eight GE slots and may trade any row; F2P accounts get three slots
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and may only purchase free-to-play rows. The modeled economics below assume the
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members set — a hybrid account must swap to the 3-slot F2P path (Iron bar /
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Cosmic rune / Silver ore) instead of chasing members-only rows it cannot buy."
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source: "OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange (Members get eight Grand Exchange slots ... free players are limited to three. Additionally, free players may only purchase free-to-play items, and not members' items)"
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economy:
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# Model (documented, reproducible from the snapshot):
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# per slot: buy `limit` units at the low edge, sell at the high edge.
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# net_pu = 0.98 * sell - buy (2% convenience fee on the sale; the 5M/item cap and
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# the sub-50gp rounding exemption are not hit at these prices)
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# 4h/slot = net_pu * limit (buy-limit window caps per-4h volume)
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# Snapshot 2026-08-27: prices.runescape.wiki mapping + latest; limits cross-checked
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# against Module:Exchange/<Item> (all agree). Top 8 by 4h/slot below in profit_drivers.
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# Members path (8 GE slots — the modeled economics below):
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# per slot: buy `limit` units at the low edge, sell at the high edge.
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# tax_pu = floor(0.02 * sell) # 2% convenience fee, rounded DOWN to
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# # whole coins per item; the 5M/item cap
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# # and the sub-50gp rounding exemption
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# # are not hit at these prices
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# net_pu = sell - tax_pu - buy # integer per-item net (floored tax)
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# 4h/slot = net_pu * limit # buy-limit window caps per-4h volume
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# F2P path (3 GE slots, F2P-tradeable rows only): same arithmetic, top-3
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# F2P rows — see profit_drivers for the table and rate.
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# Snapshots 2026-08-27: prices.runescape.wiki mapping + latest; limits and
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# members flags cross-checked against the wiki item pages (all agree). Top 8
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# by 4h/slot below in profit_drivers.
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item: Rune arrowtips # anchor: top candidate by modeled 4h/slot (members)
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item_id: 44
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cost_per_cycle: 223 # buy @ low edge per unit (snapshot 2026-08-27)
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income_per_cycle: 244 # sell @ high edge per unit, gross (snapshot 2026-08-27)
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net_per_cycle: 16.12 # 0.98 * 244 - 223 (2% fee applied to the sale)
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gp_per_hour_low: 69000 # 50% of the top-8 modeled upper bound — partial fills/drift
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gp_per_hour_high: 138000 # top-8 modeled upper bound: sum(4h/slot) / 4 (8 slots, full fills)
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net_per_cycle: 17 # 244 - floor(244*0.02) - 223 = 244 - 4 - 223 (floored tax)
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gp_per_hour_low: 74750 # 50% of the top-8 modeled upper bound — partial fills/drift
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gp_per_hour_high: 149500 # top-8 modeled upper bound: sum(4h/slot) / 4 (8 slots, full fills)
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xp_per_hour: 0 # flipping awards no XP
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supplies:
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- item: Rune arrowtips # canonical wiki names per action-grammar conventions
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@ -80,9 +97,10 @@ economy:
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ge_limit: 18000
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profit_drivers:
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- "Spread per unit x trade volume; volume is the safety factor (high-volume items fill faster and drift less)"
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- "Slot breadth: cover as many net-positive candidates as capital allows (standard 8 slots)"
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- "Snapshot 2026-08-27 top 8 by modeled 4h/slot: Rune arrowtips 161,200 (buy 223 / sell 244 / limit 10000); Iron bar 88,600 (145/157/10000); Cosmic rune 61,920 (122/128/18000); Magic logs 61,680 (772/793/12000); Silver ore 57,460 (73/79/13000); Mud rune 53,640 (96/101/18000); Raw swordfish 41,100 (206/213/15000); Raw lobster 27,000 (106/110/15000)"
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- "Post-2%-fee reality: 11 of 21 classic staples are net-positive at band edges; sub-2%-spread items (law/chaos/blood runes, dragon bones, adamantite/mithril bars) need sub-low buys or above-high sells"
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- "Slot breadth: cover as many net-positive candidates as capital allows (members 8 slots / F2P 3 slots)"
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- "Members path — snapshot 2026-08-27 top 8 by modeled 4h/slot (floored 2% tax): Rune arrowtips 170,000 (M, buy 223 / sell 244 / limit 10000); Iron bar 90,000 (F2P, 145/157/10000); Cosmic rune 72,000 (F2P, 122/128/18000); Magic logs 72,000 (M, 772/793/12000); Silver ore 65,000 (F2P, 73/79/13000); Mud rune 54,000 (M, 96/101/18000); Raw swordfish 45,000 (F2P, 206/213/15000); Raw lobster 30,000 (F2P, 106/110/15000) — total 598,000 per 4h = 149,500 gp/h on 8 slots"
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- "F2P path — 3 slots, F2P-tradeable rows only: Iron bar 90,000 + Cosmic rune 72,000 + Silver ore 65,000 = 227,000 per 4h = 56,750 gp/h (alternates: Raw swordfish 45,000, Raw lobster 30,000)"
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- "Post-2%-fee reality: 11 of 21 classic staples are net-positive at band edges for members; sub-2%-spread items (law/chaos/blood runes, dragon bones, adamantite/mithril bars) need sub-low buys or above-high sells"
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state_machine:
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initial: idle
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@ -96,13 +114,16 @@ state_machine:
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next: [buy, idle]
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buy:
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goal: place one resting buy offer per slot at or below the low edge
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next: [wait_fill, collect, idle]
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wait_fill:
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goal: hold offers; re-quote any approaching the 4h window lapse
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next: [wait_buy_fill, collect, idle]
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wait_buy_fill:
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goal: hold BUY offers; re-quote any approaching the 4h window lapse
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next: [sell, buy, collect]
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sell:
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goal: place one sell offer per filled slot at or above the high edge
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next: [wait_fill, collect]
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next: [wait_sell_fill, collect]
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wait_sell_fill:
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goal: hold SELL offers; re-quote any approaching the 4h window lapse
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next: [collect, sell, idle]
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collect:
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goal: collect proceeds, deposit coins, log the cycle
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next: [scan, complete, idle]
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@ -119,16 +140,22 @@ state_machine:
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to: idle
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- from: buy
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when: "all slots quoted"
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to: wait_fill
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- from: wait_fill
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to: wait_buy_fill
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- from: wait_buy_fill
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when: "all pending buys filled"
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to: sell
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- from: wait_fill
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when: "4h window lapse with unfilled offers"
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- from: wait_buy_fill
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when: "4h window lapse with unfilled BUY offers"
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to: collect
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- from: sell
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when: "sells placed"
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to: wait_fill
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to: wait_sell_fill
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- from: wait_sell_fill
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when: "all pending sells filled"
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to: collect
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- from: wait_sell_fill
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when: "4h window lapse with unfilled SELL offers"
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to: sell
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- from: collect
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when: "session GP target reached"
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to: complete
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@ -216,7 +243,7 @@ actions:
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delay: [600, 1400]
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run_control:
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iteration: "one full buy -> fill -> sell -> collect rotation across all slots"
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iteration: "one full buy -> buy-fill -> sell -> sell-fill -> collect rotation across all slots"
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max_iterations: null
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break:
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every: [6, 10] # rotations
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@ -11,6 +11,10 @@ Runs:
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=> WARNING (entry should be re-verified, not dropped)
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- `best_practice` lines whose source starts with "researched"
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=> WARNING (citation TODO — file a follow-up issue)
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- GE-margin entries (tags include flipping/merchanting): the 2% GE
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convenience fee is rounded DOWN to whole coins per item, so
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net_per_cycle MUST equal income - floor(0.02*income) - cost.
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Fractional-tax arithmetic (0.98*sell - buy) is an error.
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3. Global id uniqueness across the whole codex tree.
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Exit codes: 0 = clean (warnings ok), 1 = validation errors.
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@ -19,6 +23,7 @@ Usage: python3 tools/validate.py [--stale-days 30]
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"""
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import datetime
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import json
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import math
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import re
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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@ -107,6 +112,25 @@ def main():
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if len(a_steps) != len(set(a_steps)):
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errors.append(f"{rel}: duplicate action step names")
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# GE-margin floor-tax arithmetic. The wiki: "The 2% tax rounds down
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# to the nearest whole number, so items sold for below 50 coins have
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# a tax of less than one coin" — per-item net MUST use the floored
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# tax, never 0.98*sell - buy. Scoped to GE-margin tags so alchemy
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# (income is alch value, not a GE sale) is unaffected.
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tags = {str(t).lower() for t in data.get("tags", [])}
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eco = data.get("economy") or {}
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if tags & {"flipping", "merchanting", "ge"} and all(
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k in eco for k in ("income_per_cycle", "cost_per_cycle", "net_per_cycle")
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):
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sell, buy = eco["income_per_cycle"], eco["cost_per_cycle"]
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tax = math.floor(sell * 0.02)
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expected = sell - tax - buy
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if eco["net_per_cycle"] != expected:
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errors.append(
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f"{rel}: net_per_cycle {eco['net_per_cycle']} != floored-tax model "
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f"{expected} (sell {sell} - floor({sell}*0.02)={tax} - buy {buy}); "
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f"GE tax rounds down per item — fractional 0.98*sell - buy is invalid")
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# 3. staleness / research TODOs
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if data.get("status") == "verified":
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try:
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