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codex/economy/flip-candidates.yaml: GE flipping entry (epic #1 P0 backlog)

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Implements the epic's uncovered P0 economy backlog item (flip candidates).
Verified source chain 2026-08-27: prices.runescape.wiki mapping + latest,
all 15 shortlist limits cross-checked against Module:Exchange (agree);
GE tax verified at 2% since 2025-05-29 (1% at 2021 intro), 5M/item cap,
sub-50gp effectively untaxed; Merchanting + Grand Exchange/Buying limits
pages cited for mechanics. Net model: 0.98*sell - buy at band edges.
Gate: python3 tools/validate.py exit 0 (2 entries, 0 errors, 1 pre-existing
warning on the golden entry's researched flag — none added by this entry).
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id: flip-candidates
title: GE Flipping (margin trading)
domain: economy
tags: [flipping, merchanting, ge, money-making, hybrid]
status: verified
version: 1
updated: "2026-08-27" # ISO dates must stay quoted — YAML 1.1 parses bare dates to datetime.date
summary: >
Buy-and-sell Grand Exchange margin flipping: place resting buy offers at
the low edge of an item's price band and resting sell offers at the high
edge, harvesting the spread on high-volume items. There are no skill or
quest requirements — capital breadth and slot discipline are the whole game.
accounts:
membership: hybrid # flipping works on F2P and members accounts alike
min_level: 3 # post-Tutorial Island baseline; no skill requirement
requires_quest: []
requires_other:
- "Post-Tutorial Island account with Grand Exchange access (no skill or quest requirement)"
best_practice:
equipment:
- item: cash stack (flip capital)
why: "Gross margin per item is a few gp, so profit scales with quantity and the 4h
buy-limit window caps per-item volume — capital breadth (more candidates/slots
covered) matters more than any gear. Bulk flipping at scale needs ~20M+ cash."
source: "OSRS wiki — Merchanting (Bulk quantity flipping)"
techniques:
- name: flip the spread, not the trend
why: "Flipping profit is the buy/sell spread between pending offers (the impatience
premium), NOT price movement; it is safer when the item has high trade volume."
source: "OSRS wiki — Merchanting (Flipping)"
- name: prefer dynamic-price items, avoid static-price items
why: "Static-price items have no spread to harvest; only dynamic-price items carry
an exploitable margin."
source: "OSRS wiki — Merchanting (flipping guidance: 'strongly recommended to not
flip static-price items')"
- name: quote at the band edges, never instant-buy/sell
why: "Instant matching pays the standing offer's price (the market's impatience
price); a resting offer fills when a matching offer appears at or better than your
price. The 2% convenience fee makes sub-2%-spread staples unprofitable at band
edges outright, so the edges are where the margin lives."
source: "OSRS wiki — Merchanting (How the Grand Exchange works); OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange
(2% tax since 2025-05-29, capped 5M/item)"
- name: pace quotes inside the 4h buy-limit window, watch connected limits
why: "The buying rate is restricted to a set quantity every 4 hours per player, and
some items share a connected limit with related items — treat those as one bucket
when filling slots."
source: "OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange (Buy limits; Grand Exchange/Buying limits)"
economy:
# Model (documented, reproducible from the snapshot):
# per slot: buy `limit` units at the low edge, sell at the high edge.
# net_pu = 0.98 * sell - buy (2% convenience fee on the sale; the 5M/item cap and
# the sub-50gp rounding exemption are not hit at these prices)
# 4h/slot = net_pu * limit (buy-limit window caps per-4h volume)
# Snapshot 2026-08-27: prices.runescape.wiki mapping + latest; limits cross-checked
# against Module:Exchange/<Item> (all agree). Top 8 by 4h/slot below in profit_drivers.
item: Rune arrowtips # anchor: top candidate by modeled 4h/slot (members)
item_id: 44
cost_per_cycle: 223 # buy @ low edge per unit (snapshot 2026-08-27)
income_per_cycle: 244 # sell @ high edge per unit, gross (snapshot 2026-08-27)
net_per_cycle: 16.12 # 0.98 * 244 - 223 (2% fee applied to the sale)
gp_per_hour_low: 69000 # 50% of the top-8 modeled upper bound — partial fills/drift
gp_per_hour_high: 138000 # top-8 modeled upper bound: sum(4h/slot) / 4 (8 slots, full fills)
xp_per_hour: 0 # flipping awards no XP
supplies:
- item: Rune arrowtips # canonical wiki names per action-grammar conventions
qty_per_cycle: 1
source: ge
ge_limit: 10000 # mapping + Module:Exchange agree
- item: Iron bar
qty_per_cycle: 1
source: ge
ge_limit: 10000
- item: Cosmic rune
qty_per_cycle: 1
source: ge
ge_limit: 18000
profit_drivers:
- "Spread per unit x trade volume; volume is the safety factor (high-volume items fill faster and drift less)"
- "Slot breadth: cover as many net-positive candidates as capital allows (standard 8 slots)"
- "Snapshot 2026-08-27 top 8 by modeled 4h/slot: Rune arrowtips 161,200 (buy 223 / sell 244 / limit 10000); Iron bar 88,600 (145/157/10000); Cosmic rune 61,920 (122/128/18000); Magic logs 61,680 (772/793/12000); Silver ore 57,460 (73/79/13000); Mud rune 53,640 (96/101/18000); Raw swordfish 41,100 (206/213/15000); Raw lobster 27,000 (106/110/15000)"
- "Post-2%-fee reality: 11 of 21 classic staples are net-positive at band edges; sub-2%-spread items (law/chaos/blood runes, dragon bones, adamantite/mithril bars) need sub-low buys or above-high sells"
state_machine:
initial: idle
terminal: [complete, failed]
states:
idle:
goal: be logged in at a bank with a GE booth, capital >= floor
next: [scan, complete, failed]
scan:
goal: read the current high/low band for every candidate
next: [buy, idle]
buy:
goal: place one resting buy offer per slot at or below the low edge
next: [wait_fill, collect, idle]
wait_fill:
goal: hold offers; re-quote any approaching the 4h window lapse
next: [sell, buy, collect]
sell:
goal: place one sell offer per filled slot at or above the high edge
next: [wait_fill, collect]
collect:
goal: collect proceeds, deposit coins, log the cycle
next: [scan, complete, idle]
complete:
goal: session GP target reached
failed:
goal: hard failure — stop, log ERROR sentinel, alert
transitions:
- from: idle
when: "capital below floor OR session target reached"
to: complete
- from: scan
when: "no candidate net-positive at band edges on 3 consecutive scans"
to: idle
- from: buy
when: "all slots quoted"
to: wait_fill
- from: wait_fill
when: "all pending buys filled"
to: sell
- from: wait_fill
when: "4h window lapse with unfilled offers"
to: collect
- from: sell
when: "sells placed"
to: wait_fill
- from: collect
when: "session GP target reached"
to: complete
- from: collect
when: "rotation done and window open"
to: scan
actions:
- id: a1
step: reach-ge
verb: move_to
target: "bank with Grand Exchange booth"
params:
location: "Grand Exchange (Varrock) area bank"
method: [teleport, walk]
on_fail: retry
anti_ban:
delay: [400, 1600]
- id: a2
step: open-ge
verb: ge_open
target: grand-exchange
params:
booth: "GE counter or bank booth"
on_fail: retry
anti_ban:
delay: [800, 1800]
- id: a3
step: scan-bands
verb: ge_check_price
target: "current candidates"
params:
items: "top-N candidates from the entry table"
band: "high and low edge per item"
on_fail: skip
anti_ban:
delay: [1200, 2800]
- id: a4
step: place-buys
verb: ge_buy
target: grand-exchange
params:
item: "per candidate slot"
qty: "min(remaining 4h limit, slot capacity)"
price: "low edge (rounded down)"
max_price: "low edge — never instant"
on_fail: skip
anti_ban:
delay: [900, 2700]
- id: a5
step: hold-fills
verb: sleep
params:
delay: [6000, 12000]
until: "ge_offers_done changes or 4h window lapse"
on_fail: retry
anti_ban:
delay: [300, 900]
- id: a6
step: place-sells
verb: ge_sell
target: grand-exchange
params:
item: "per filled slot"
qty: "filled quantity"
price: "high edge (rounded up)"
on_fail: skip
anti_ban:
delay: [900, 2700]
- id: a7
step: collect-and-log
verb: ge_collect
target: grand-exchange
params:
deposit: "coins to bank"
log: "RESULT item, qty, net gp per slot"
on_fail: alert
anti_ban:
delay: [600, 1400]
run_control:
iteration: "one full buy -> fill -> sell -> collect rotation across all slots"
max_iterations: null
break:
every: [6, 10] # rotations
for: [60, 240] # seconds of idle AFK
stop_conditions:
- "session GP target reached"
- "capital under floor"
- "no net-positive candidates on 3 consecutive scans"
- "3 consecutive aborted offers (client issue — do not loop)"
risk:
ban_level: low
notes:
- "Flipping is standard gameplay; the detectable signal is quote churn — keep per-offer pacing humanised, never instant-buy/sell loops."
- "The 2% fee (since 2025-05-29) and 5M/item cap make sub-2%-spread staples unprofitable at band edges; re-scan before every rotation."
- "Thin/volatile items: a resting offer can sit for hours — cap quote lifetime to the 4h window and re-quote rather than chase."
sources:
- "OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange (2% convenience fee since 2025-05-29, capped 5M/item, sub-50gp effectively untaxed, tax-exempt low-value items; buying rate restricted per 4h; connected limits; verified 2026-08-27)"
- "OSRS wiki — Grand Exchange/Buying limits (4h window mechanics)"
- "OSRS wiki — Merchanting (flipping = spread exploitation; high trade volume = safety; bulk flipping needs ~20M+ cash; avoid static-price items; offer matching at or better than your price)"
- "prices.runescape.wiki/api/v1/osrs/mapping (item ids, members flags, limits — limits cross-checked against Module:Exchange/<Item>, all agree)"
- "prices.runescape.wiki/api/v1/osrs/latest (high/low price band snapshot 2026-08-27)"
verified: "2026-08-27" # keep quoted (YAML 1.1 date parsing)
related:
- low-alch-f2p
- f2p-alch-catalog
- mule-topup