GE flipping entry for the OSRS Codex (#1) #7

Merged
pbwraith merged 9 commits from issue-1 into main 2026-08-29 10:16:47 +02:00

9 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
Claude
d19a4d9de0 Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into issue-1
# Conflicts:
#	tools/validate.py
2026-08-29 03:13:45 -05:00
Claude
671d025d9f fix(flip-candidates): release the physical GE slot after a completed flip via closed -> free (governor 10471)
A successful sell followed sell-filled-awaiting-collect -> closed, and
'closed' had no outgoing transition while the scheduler left closed
slots untouched — every GE slot could perform ONE flip and then became
permanently unusable (no rotations, breaks, or longer sessions).

Fix (finding-by-finding, governor comment 10471):
1. 'closed' is no longer a sink. The completed cycle's ledger is
   reconciled and ARCHIVED at close, and the physical slot is released
   to free via the explicit archival transition closed -> free
   (flip-candidates.yaml slot_transitions, whens, scheduler_iteration,
   a9 archive step, summary, risk, sources). The scheduler pass
   dispatches the release (SLOT_DISPATCH['closed'] = 'release'), so a
   closed slot is only ever transient.
2. A deliberately closed cancelled sell releases identically:
   sell-cancelled-awaiting-collect -> closed -> free (whens updated).
3. Committed two-rotation regression (validator, wired into
   ge_lifecycle_errors for every flipping entry): slot_reuse_violations
   walks one physical slot through free -> buy-open ->
   buy-filled-awaiting-collect -> ready-to-sell -> sell-open ->
   sell-filled-awaiting-collect -> closed -> free -> buy-open (second
   buy in the SAME slot), validating every ledger frame against both
   conservation gates; archived_ledger_preserved_after_second_buy
   proves the rotation-1 archived ledger survives rotation 2 bit-for-bit
   (no loss, duplication, or mutation). Negative fixtures prove a
   closed sink or a closed that does not release to free FAILS.
4. ge_lifecycle_errors now requires closed == ['free'] exactly and
   rejects any machine where a state has no transitions.
5. Worked example: t5/t8 walk the release, t8b runs rotation 2 in the
   same physical slots.

All prior fixtures preserved (tax x4, async-slot scheduler,
collection-box, limit-window, side-aware conservation x25) — now 35
selftest checks.

Evidence: python3 tools/validate.py -> 2 entries, 0 errors, 1
pre-existing warning; --selftest -> 35 PASS, 0 errors; git diff
--check clean.
2026-08-29 03:11:20 -05:00
Claude
76f8e5ad27 fix(flip-candidates): GE asset accounting + offer lifetime per governor 10390 (bounce-fix 6)
- Buy-limit reset NEVER cancels an offer: quote_age_policy now aborts
  only on a stale scanned edge or explicit strategy reallocation; the
  4h window is a capacity clock (limit_ledger), not an offer deadline.
  Removed every lapse-as-cancel trigger from best_practice, whens,
  quote_age_policy, a5/a8, worked example, risk, and the a6 verdict.
- Completed offers pass through the collection box: new canonical
  sub-states buy-filled-awaiting-collect / sell-filled-awaiting-collect;
  a full buy cannot sell and a full sell cannot close before ge_collect
  (scheduler dispatches collect for all four *-awaiting-collect states).
- Works the arrowtips example side-aware: a 4,000/10,000 partial BUY
  cancel returns 4,000 units + refunded CASH for the unfilled 6,000 —
  never 'refunded units'; the phantom 10,000-unit withdrawal is gone.
- conservation_violations() is now side-aware (buy: quoted =
  filled + still_open + cancelled_unfilled with acquired items = filled
  only, cash = spent + still_committed + refunded; sell: quoted =
  sold + still_open + returned_unsold) with slot_phase_violations()
  phase gates and committed negative fixtures: phantom refunded buy
  units, a full buy sold before collection, a full sell closed before
  proceeds collection. Existing tax/scheduler/limit fixtures preserved.
- grammar (ge_cancel/ge_collect), schema sub_states minItems, entry
  version 5 + sources updated accordingly.
2026-08-28 14:48:55 -05:00
Claude
02b366c7ef flip-candidates: per-slot async sub-state lifecycle (governor 10323 bounce-fix 5)
- slot_state_machine: canonical 8 sub-states (free/buy-open/
  buy-cancelled-awaiting-collect/ready-to-sell/sell-open/
  sell-cancelled-awaiting-collect/ready-to-requote/closed) + global
  scheduler pass that never advances unrelated slots
- ge_cancel moves filled items/refunds/unsold units/coins to the GE
  collection box; ge_collect + ledger reconciliation before reuse
- 4h buy-limit ledger (limit_used/first_fill_ts/limit_resets_at) distinct
  from offer expiry; cancellation never renews the limit
- per-slot conservation invariants w/ committed validator fixtures
- economy.ceiling_gp_per_hour typed ceiling, gp_per_hour_low/high as
  documented realized scenario bounds (no uncited multipliers)
- capped/floored 2% tax + 4 fixtures preserved (owner decision)
- action-grammar: ge_cancel/ge_collect rows corrected
2026-08-28 04:01:20 -05:00
Claude
3572255a11 codex: complete GE-flip lifecycle per owner addendum — partial fills, ge_cancel recovery, ledger, break/resume, realized rates (bounce-fix 4)
Owner lifecycle addendum (2026-08-28) + governor bounce 4 (lifecycle contract):
- state machine now covers the ENTIRE buy -> sell -> collect flow with no
  stranded state: partial fills tracked per slot (filled_qty ledger), 4h-lapse
  buys go to a new cancel_requote state (ge_cancel: units return to inventory,
  cash refunds, slot freed) instead of collect, cancelled units still sell at
  the high edge, lapse sells re-quote or lower rather than strand
- action grammar + schema extended ONCE with the cancellation mutation
  ge_cancel (was missing; ge_clear/ge_offers_done are predicates only) and
  used explicitly in the new a8 cancel-requote action
- concrete runtime state: minimum per-slot capital table (buy x 4h limit),
  members 8-slot vs F2P 3-slot paths, per-slot offer phase + quantities,
  buy-limit window, inventory/collection reconciliation in a9
- breaks connected to an explicit safe/resume path: resting offers persist
  server-side + per-slot ledger survive the pause; resume = re-open GE,
  re-check offers, continue current phase; never break mid-collect/mid-place
- rates qualified against the full lifecycle: 149,500 gp/h is named the 4h
  buy-limit CEILING; realized range = ceiling x fill_factor (~0.5-0.9) x
  duty_cycle (~0.90-0.95) ~ 96,300 gp/h midpoint; gp_per_hour_low 74,750
- pinned worked example: capital 22.5M -> 8 slot quotes -> arrowtips partial
  fill (4,000/10,000 tracked) -> iron bar full fill sell (90,000 net) ->
  cosmic no-fill ge_cancel + requote -> arrowtips partial matures at lapse
  (cancel, sell 4,000, 68,000 net) -> first break after 6-10 rotations ->
  resume -> stop conditions
- version 2 -> 3; evidence: validate 2 entries 0 errors 1 pre-existing WARN,
  selftest 4 PASS (fractional-tax fail, ge non-margin pass, floored pass,
  above-cap pass), synthetic merge main 79cab78 + head clean + gate green,
  git diff --check clean
2026-08-28 03:19:13 -05:00
Claude
00bfc358cb fix(validate): cap GE floor tax at 5,000,000 GP per item (owner decision A)
Owner decision 2026-08-28: single global GE tax formula for all entries:
min(floor(0.02 * sell_price), 5_000_000). Apply the per-item cap inside
ge_floor_tax_error(); the margin-tag scope (flipping/merchanting) and the
generic-ge non-margin exemption are unchanged.

Regression fixtures now cover:
- fractional-tax flipping entry must FAIL (kept)
- non-margin entry with only ge + processing must PASS (kept)
- correctly-floored flipping entry must PASS (kept)
- high-value flip above the 5,000,000 GP cap (sell 300,000,000 / buy
  294,000,000 / net 1,000,000) must PASS — the old uncapped rule computed
  6,000,000 tax, demanded net 0, and rejected this valid entry (new)

Closes the governor's attempt-3 blocker on PR !7.
2026-08-28 02:35:53 -05:00
Claude
f6675ba543 fix(validate): scope GE floor-tax gate to margin tags, add regression selftest
Governor-review bounce (PR #7, attempt 2) fix on issue-1:
- The floor-tax rule previously triggered on any entry carrying the
  generic 'ge' tag (tags & {flipping, merchanting, ge}). A training,
  processing, or procurement entry may legitimately carry 'ge' while
  its income/cost model is unrelated to flip tax, so it could fail the
  global gate unless its economics accidentally satisfied the flip
  equation.
- Rule now gates ONLY the unambiguous margin tags (flipping and/or
  merchanting); the bare 'ge' tag no longer triggers it.
- Rule extracted into ge_floor_tax_error() and a --selftest mode added
  with three regression fixtures, run on every gate invocation:
    * fractional-tax flipping entry  -> must FAIL
    * non-margin entry with only 'ge' + 'processing' (economics
      deliberately violate the flip equation) -> must PASS
    * correctly-floored flipping entry -> must PASS
- Demo (old scope): ge+processing fixture with net 2000 vs floored 1900
  errored under the old tag set; low-alch-f2p's -112 vs -115 model
  would also false-positive if it carried 'ge'.

Tests: python3 tools/validate.py -> 2 entries, 0 errors, 1 pre-existing
warning (researched flag on low-alch-f2p); --selftest -> 3 PASS, 0 errors;
git diff --check clean.
2026-08-27 12:34:08 -05:00
Claude
864f2c9e1c fix(flip-candidates): floor GE tax to whole coins, pin full sell-cycle, qualify F2P path
Governor-review bounce (PR #7) fixes on issue-1:
1. GE 2% convenience fee rounds DOWN per item: net = sell - floor(0.02*sell) - buy.
   Anchor net 16.12 -> 17 (244-4-223); top-8 members table recomputed with
   floored tax -> 598,000/4h = 149,500 gp/h (was 138,000); gp_per_hour_low/high
   updated. Validator now rejects fractional-tax arithmetic for GE-margin entries.
2. State machine split wait_fill into wait_buy_fill / wait_sell_fill so the full
   buy -> buy-fill -> sell -> sell-fill -> collect path is explicit; sell cycle
   can no longer loop back into sell without collecting.
3. Economy qualified as the members path (8 slots); F2P path added (3 slots,
   F2P-tradeable rows only): Iron bar + Cosmic rune + Silver ore = 227,000/4h
   = 56,750 gp/h. Members/F2P flags cross-checked against wiki item pages.
2026-08-27 05:27:09 -05:00
Claude
04a4af0299 codex/economy/flip-candidates.yaml: GE flipping entry (epic #1 P0 backlog)
Implements the epic's uncovered P0 economy backlog item (flip candidates).
Verified source chain 2026-08-27: prices.runescape.wiki mapping + latest,
all 15 shortlist limits cross-checked against Module:Exchange (agree);
GE tax verified at 2% since 2025-05-29 (1% at 2021 intro), 5M/item cap,
sub-50gp effectively untaxed; Merchanting + Grand Exchange/Buying limits
pages cited for mechanics. Net model: 0.98*sell - buy at band edges.
Gate: python3 tools/validate.py exit 0 (2 entries, 0 errors, 1 pre-existing
warning on the golden entry's researched flag — none added by this entry).
2026-08-27 03:15:59 -05:00